An April 2019 Analysis by the International Trade Commission on the likely effects of the USMCA estimated that the agreement would increase U.S. real GDP by 0.35 percent if the agreement were fully implemented (six years after ratification) and would increase total U.S. employment by 0.12% (176,000 jobs).   The analysis cited by another Congressional Research Service study showed that the agreement would not have a measurable effect on employment, wages or overall economic growth.  In the summer of 2019, Larry Kudlow, Trump`s chief economic adviser (the director of the National Economic Council at Trump White House), made unfounded statements about the likely economic impact of the agreement and overstated forecasts related to jobs and GDP growth.  In its May 24, 2017 report, the Congressional Research Service (CRS) wrote that the economic impact of NAFTA on the U.S. economy was modest. In a 2015 report, the Congressional Research Service summarized several studies as follows: „In reality, NAFTA did not cause the huge job losses that critics feared, nor the significant economic benefits predicted by supporters. The overall net effect of NAFTA on the U.S. economy appears to have been relatively small, not least because trade with Canada and Mexico accounts for a small percentage of U.S. GDP. However, there have been adjustment costs for workers and businesses as the three countries have prepared for more open trade and investment between their economies. :2 Negotiations focused „primarily on car exports, steel and aluminum tariffs, as well as the milk, egg and poultry markets.“ A provision „prevents any party from enacting laws that restrict the cross-border flow of data.“  Compared to NAFTA, the USMCA increases environmental and labour standards and encourages domestic production of cars and trucks.  The agreement also provides up-to-date intellectual property protection, gives the U.S.
more access to the Canadian milk market, imposes a quota for Canadian and Mexican auto production, and increases the customs limit for Canadians who purchase U.S. products online from $20 to $150.  The full list of differences between USMCA and ALEFTA is listed on the Website of the United States Trade Representative (USTR).  Supporters of NAFTA in the United States stressed that the pact was a free trade agreement and not an agreement on the Economic Community.  The free movement of goods, services and capital did not extend to work. By proposing what no comparable agreement had attempted to open up to a „great third world country“ – NAFTA avoided the establishment of a common social policy and employment. The regulation of the labour market and employment has remained exclusively due to national governments.  The pact catalyzed Mexico`s transition from one of the world`s most protectionist economies to one of the most trade-free. Mexico had dismantled many of its trade barriers after joining the WTO`s 1986 General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) in 1986, but it still had an average level of tariffs before NAFTA [PDF] of 10%.
The CUSMA results, signed on the sidelines of the G20 of Heads of State and Government in Buenos Aires in November 2018, preserve key elements of long-term trade relations and contain new and updated provisions to address 21st century trade issues and foster opportunities for the nearly half a billion people who call North America at home. The Trump administration`s office proposed the USMCA citing new measures for digital commerce, strengthening the protection of trade secrets and adapting the rules of origin of automobiles among the benefits of the trade agreement.  But the most important aspect for Canada – opening up its economy to the United States, by far Canada`s largest trading partner – was before NAFTA, when Canadian and U.S. countries came into force in 1989.